Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Hits Fresh Record Highs Above $3,500

Gold has extended its winning streak into a sixth consecutive session, soaring past the $3,500 mark to set new all-time highs early Tuesday. The rally, however, faces temporary resistance as the US Dollar stages a modest rebound. Traders now turn their focus to upcoming US economic data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for further direction.

Gold Extends Rally on Safe-Haven Demand

The precious metal remains supported by a combination of factors, including growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. These conditions continue to fuel safe-haven demand, keeping gold’s bullish momentum intact despite near-term dollar strength.

Market participants widely anticipate a 25 basis points rate cut in September, with the CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 90% probability. This expectation has been a key driver of gold’s upward momentum.

US Dollar Rebounds but Upside Limited

While gold continues its rally, the US Dollar has managed a short-term bounce from one-month lows. The recovery is largely attributed to profit-taking and positioning ahead of crucial economic releases this week, including US business surveys and labor market data.

Nevertheless, structural pressures on the greenback remain, as concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence grow amid political pressure from the White House. This uncertainty keeps the dollar on the defensive, further underpinning demand for bullion.

Geopolitical Risks Keep Gold Supported

Geopolitical tensions also play a major role in sustaining gold’s bullish trend. Ukraine’s plans for new strikes inside Russia, following weeks of intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, add another layer of risk for global markets. Attempts at diplomatic mediation have so far failed to ease concerns, ensuring that investors continue to flock toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.

Technical Outlook: Room for More Upside

On the daily chart, gold maintains a strong bullish structure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 71, indicating overbought conditions but still leaving space for further upside. Additionally, the bullish crossover of the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages reinforces the positive trend.

• Immediate resistance lies at the recent peak of $3,509. A sustained move higher could open the door toward the $3,550 psychological barrier.
  
  

• On the downside, initial support is seen at $3,475, followed by $3,437. A deeper pullback may test the $3,400 round level.

Outlook

Gold’s long-term outlook remains firmly bullish, supported by dovish Fed expectations, persistent geopolitical risks, and strong technical signals. While short-term pullbacks cannot be ruled out, dips are likely to attract fresh buying interest as investors continue to favor safe-haven assets in an uncertain global landscape.